It actually amazing how many people have asked me to post something on my blog. Well here it is!

To all the American Patriots who flamed the hell out of me three years ago, a big fat:

I TOLD YOU SO!!!! The Americans are 100% completely and totally fucked in Iraq. Their entire policy has been completely unsuccessful from the first day. I doubt there is one sane, thinking person in the United States who thinks that the war can be won or come to any conclusion that is favourable to the USA. Staying will increase the death toll of Americans. Leaving will make them lose face. Frontline had an excellent documentary on Iraq two nights ago which plotted the American blunders step by step. American and Bush has alienated so much of the Iraqi population that the resistance to the US being in Iraq grows on a daily basis. They correctly realise that in order to establish any kind of order in Iraq, the Americans need to get the fuck and let the Iraqis deal with it themselves. Those guns Bremmer let them keep are now pointed at Americans and shooting at them at any chance they get.

The sad thing about all this is everyone knows that sooner or later, the Americans will have to leave. There is no way the US public is going to tolerate the death tolls being recorded now. As of yesterday, 70 American troops have been killed in Iraq this month. This is getting to Vietnam levels. The resistance movement will only get bolder as Americans continue their "intelligence sweeps" and put innocent people in jail. As soon as they get out they are going to take up arms so the insurgency is growing at a rate the US cannot ever hope to contain. The troop levels that the US has in Iraq are very difficult to maintain and put huge strains on the reserves. A draft is politically impossible lest the elite's kids get killed.

It is my belief that the increased numbers of US killed is mostly due to a morale crisis. You do not have to be Einstein to realise that the insurgency is totally beyond US control, the Sunni and Shi'ia are killing the fuck out of each other and America is in the middle of it all. Guys on their second and third times around are going to be more interested in saving their own asses than any kind of action, which in a military parlence cuts unit coheshesion, leading to more casualties. The same thing happened in Vietnam. Protracted wars are never successful for an occupier unless victory is clearly in sight. Even in World War 1, troops were seldom under fire more than a few days a month at most. The stresses that US units are facing now must be tremendous; they are never safe and constantly under the threat of fire. This leads to stress and stress leads to mistakes, which in turn leads to more deaths. The soldiers know this, too.

 It will be interesting to see what happens in the mid term elections. The polls seem to show that Americans realise the mistake they made in re-electing Bush. Let's hope the Dems get control of boths houses and shake up the staus quo. I do see a lot of good signs; anything critical of the war was unthinkable and branded as "Anti-American" or "Un-American even a year ago. There is now a healthy debate in the US media about the war and this is a good sign. Even the GOP is strangely quiet about the whole thing. Gas prices are falling, though, right before the election, completely true to my prediction.

To readers: Flame away but tell me how America can ever possibly have a positive outcome from the war. Tell me. I want to know.